🔗 Share this article

Beijing has deployed its coast guard into the maritime area of the Diaoyu islands and military drones past outlying Japan's territory as China ramps up strains following the Japan's leader's comments regarding the island of Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Senkaku, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing.

“Chinese maritime patrol unit 1307 performed surveillance within the maritime jurisdiction of the Diaoyu islands. This was a legitimate rights enforcement activity undertaken by the Chinese maritime authorities to protect its sovereign claims,” officials declared.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have repeatedly faced off around the disputed territory but the recent developments come amid an escalating political dispute after the Japanese prime minister, the Japanese official, told parliament that if China attack democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from China, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Taiwan's Position

Beijing asserts Taiwan as its sovereign land and intends to annex it under what it terms “unification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and citizens categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without formally announcing independence, but vowing to defend themselves if necessary.

An military assault by China would risk escalating into a international confrontation, possibly drawing in the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has land just 110km (68 miles) from Taiwan.

Military Activity

In Taiwan, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had detected 30 Chinese military aircraft, seven navy ships and one government vessel, which was probably the maritime patrol, active near the island over the previous day.

Maps provided by the ministry showed up to three drones operating near Taiwan and the Japanese islands off its northeastern shoreline, appearing to go unusually near to Yonaguni. PLA movements there are occasional, but infrequent, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in the past month.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said Beijing had been carrying out another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It noted the island had sent its own aircraft and ships to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a couple of times a month as part of what the Taiwanese government says is an continuous strategic pressure.

Political Strain

Japan has been experiencing increased strain from China since Takaichi made her remarks, with Beijing's diplomatic representative in Osaka triggering an official complaint from Japan by stating that “the dirty head that sticks itself out must be cut off”.

Beijing then summoned the Japanese ambassador for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry stated that any Tokyo's involvement would be certain to collapse.

Warning for Citizens

On Friday, Beijing advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “appropriate measures”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines said on Saturday that flights to Tokyo could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, Beijing's administration on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the number of Chinese students could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A record 336,708 foreign nationals were studying in Japan last year, according to official data. They included more than 123,000 Chinese students – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a Chinese state media editorial charged the Japanese official with performing a political stunt that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A conflict between Japan and China would not be a small-scale encounter; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a major confrontation with unimaginable consequences.”

Policy Standpoints

The government of Taiwan says only its people can decide its future. Officials in Tokyo have previously avoided publicly mentioning Taiwan when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also preferred by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the incorporation of the island with the mainland China is “inevitable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, Beijing has also been escalating its non-military activity and its statements towards Taiwan.